What is your Bitcoin number?

graph credit: Jesse Meyers

There are two type of people in this world: Those that already understand Bitcoin and those who do not yet.

Everyone who does not yet understand the value of having a portable, digital, immutable store of wealth has something in common with the people that DO understand it, and why it is important. That thing is that we were all previously skeptical. Every Bitcoiner can talk to you about how or why they got it.

Adults who grew up in the Western Civilization experienced an environment where we can trust banks to hold our money and the government will make sure that those banks follow the rules. It all works fine...until it doesn't.

You're probably starting to think about this system, because you know that something just doesn't seem right about it. US citizens have generally trusted 'the system' despite that the cracks in the system keep getting more visible. Because the $USD is the reserve currency of the world, we haven't felt the damage as much as other global citizens have. But when you stop and look, we see the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and how the money printing accelerated then. As we approach another banking crisis, with multiple large banks failing in the last month, it is becoming evident to more people that this system we are in is unsustainable. We have been relying on the US Federal Reserve to lubricate the wheels of modern finance, but the wheels are falling off. Take a look at the US National Debt.

Notice the rise in the debt over the last 40 years. I took that snapshot April 11, 2023 at 10am.

How are we possibly going to fix this? The answer is quite simple, we have to increase tax revenue and decrease spending. Both things are required, and neither will be accomplished because they are each political suicide for the politician that pushes the plan through. So, this broken system is going to continue until it fails. Collectively it's like we're driving on the spare tire--It's working for now, so don't worry.

But really, we are watching it fail, in front of us. Just in the last few years, we are seeing an acceleration of the debt. There are many people in the world who think this is a conspiracy, that the people in power are doing what they can to stay in power. Maybe that is the case. Perhaps they are just doing the best they can with the tools they have. Regardless, the system is going to continue to fail because the fiat money supply is controlled by humans and not by rules.

Look at the table published by the White House in May 2021 showing the projected deficit, and even how they included a column showing how the debt wouldn't be 'as bad' if the price was in 2020 dollars. This was before inflation crept up to the CPI reported 9.1% in June 2022. Remember when they told us 'Inflation is transitory?' Well, it's also important to remember that inflation compounds. We're talking about the RATE of loss of purchasing power, not just the loss. So even though we had this projection of worsening debt, the government has outspent the projected worsening!

What is going to stop this? Seriously, I would love to have an answer, because the only path I can see is the one we are on, but worsening. That debt, which is about 20% worse than the projected debt of only 2 years ago, is financed at a low interest rate. As new debt is created, and/or the old debt is refinanced, it will be priced at a new higher interest, which is going to continue to exacerbate the debt! And this will begin the debt spiral. We will print more money to pay off the debt. This will continue until the money is replaced.

We are seeing the system break, with Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, and UBS failing. These institutions had a number of problems, but one of the large problems at Silicon Valley Bank is they were carrying US Treasuries at a low interest rate that were worth less than their purchase price due to new Treasury bills issued at a higher interest rate. The lower interest rate bills had to be sold at a loss, because the bank needed cash to meet the needs of the depositors that were withdrawing their money at internet speeds.

How does this come back to Bitcoin? Well, last night it became worth $30,000 again. The fraud of 2022 dramatically suppressed the price. Hopefully all of the fraud is exposed by now. What I know is that I will not trust someone else to take care of my Bitcoin again. I also know that the number will go up over time. I do not know the rate of rise, or how many ups and downs, but the number will rise.

There is a number where you say to yourself, "Hey this Bitcoin is worth a lot of $USD! I think I should pay attention to it!" Take a minute right now to decide what that number is. Maybe you already crossed that number. Maybe it's $50,000, or $70,000, after it crosses the prior All-Time-High. Maybe it's $100,000 or $1,000,000. Maybe when it was $68,000 last year you said you would buy it if it got below $20K (did you?). But there is a number where even the highest skeptic will say that you need to learn about and buy this. The number is going to go up for a few reasons, and they are reflected in the graphs at the beginning of this article. The number of dollars is going to continue to rise, therefore the price of all hard assets will continue to rise simply by the effects of debasement causing inflation. But the other reason it will rise is because people will continue to learn about Bitcoin, and understand its use want to own it. A third reason is the $USD will eventually lose its status as the reserve currency. Again, I don't know how long this is going to take, but we have proven to the world that we are not good custodians of this asset, and many countries are already choosing to trade in other currencies. Jesse Meyers (aka Croesus) wrote a very good newsletter about this yesterday, and rather than repeat his words, I suggest you read them here.

So, take a minute to decide what number you would buy Bitcoin. Post it in a reply here to hold yourself accountable. Consider the game theory of other people's numbers. This is a global asset that anyone can buy and trade. They have numbers at which they will want to buy this as well. Consider that you could have already purchased some. You can Dollar Cost Average and buy a little bit every so often, and not worry about the price target. Strike and Swan and Coinbase will let you do this.

My number was ~$4,000 in 2017. January 6 of this year, I posted Bitcoin is STILL a BUY and the price was ~$16,900. Today it is ~$30,000.

What is your number?